I’ve seen a lot of handwringing around France’s upcoming presidential election. Will LePen win and put a final nail in the coffin of the so-called “West”?
I doubt it.
Of course, the “centrist” pundits — people like Josh Barro and Matthew Yglesias — are confused why Emmanuel Macron — who is pledging to cut billions from government and weaken labor regulations— is doing so well in France, while Hillary failed to win over here. So, they invent silly ideas — cute!
The reason is pretty simple: unlike in the United States, a vaguely “neoliberal” center-left/centrist candidate can propose major reforms in France (and still win big, as polls suggest he will), because France already has a solid assortment of universal public goods for the public good. You know, stuff like strong workers’ rights, robust rent control in major cities, paid vacation, paid sick leave, maternity and paternity benefits, public child care, (almost) free-at-use universal health care, outstanding — and, by U.S. standards, incredibly cheap — public transit, and, well, you get the idea.
When you already have a country with these awesome public goods, voters won’t care if you tinker around the edges to put a little more “free market” into your political economy. Case in point, there’s very little room for a conman, right-wing demagogue to do as Trump did last year in Michigan and Ohio: hit the Democrats from the Left on health care, by promising lower deductibles and more affordable health care for more people.
Also, what Macron is to balance liberalization of France’s stiff labor market with more robust universal public goods: in other words, the introduction of Nordic-style flexicurity to France. Workers will have a bit less protection from being fired, but they’ll also have a lot more support if it does happen — retraining for a new opportunity, universal welfare programs to ensure they don’t lose their health care and home. It’s all pretty cool — take a look:
Now, what did Hillary Clinton think would help her win here? Attacking real universal health care, despite the majority of Americans wishing to replace the Affordable Care Act with a single-payer, Medicare-for-all program.
I’m sorry, I’m sorry for dredging up this video again. I’m sure it won’t win me too many fans here. But I don’t care about popularity, I care about the Democrats — and progressives — winning elections. (I was attacked for a diary I wrote in July that argued Hillary needed to focus on progressive policy — free college, public option, etc. — instead of Trump’s crude language, but I still left the diary up, and defended its thesis, because I wanted Hillary to win.)
And for Democrats to win elections again, they must commit to building universal public goods for the public good. Without universal welfare programs, the working class will always be truly fucked by globalization in the “Uber Economy.”
So the Macron phenomenon offers a couple of lessons for Democrats and American politics more generally:
1.) Our politics are going to be incredibly vulnerable to right-wing demagogues, as long as we fail to ensure a basic level of universal security — health care, housing, cash benefits — for all citizens.
2.) If Democrats want to have a prayer of winning, they need to stand up and demand universal public goods for the public good at the same time as they pursue their neoliberal vision for the labor market.
Macron is winning in France, despite the stresses of globalization, migration, and terrorism, because the country already has such robust public goods and social welfare programs, that a bit of tinkering with them to drive economic growth and employment won’t be a catastrophe for the most vulnerable, or the middle class.
Macron is not winning, because he’s using the “Clinton playbook” and Canadian or Swedish intelligence is stepping in to help him win the election: LOL. He is winning because France already has great public goods, so he has some “space” to argue for adjusting them, and because, well, unlike so many Democrats in the United States, he truly understands that are universal welfare programs are not socialist extremism or optional, but truly necessary to build a stable, sustainable and economically prosperous society.